Thursday, February 17, 2011

Niall Ferguson actually looks at what is to be seen in Egypt

Niall Ferguson, almost alone on the national seen, has actually bothered looking at what is to be seen happening in the Egyptian revolution. He flabbergasts a bevy of MSNBC pundits by pointing out
"...Can I just remind you that the army is officially in charge of egypt which is not what one usually expects from a triumphant democratic revolution..." 
and leaves the host speechless when he dares to point out that,
"Obama's foreign policy seems to be 'I'm not George W. Bush - love me."

I've been watching the various reports, and frankly not buying any of the gammit running between 'it's 1776 again!' to 'Theocratic conspiracy!', though I think Stratfor has had the best and most worthwhile coverage of the situation, one line sums it up best, is

"The demonstrations were the backdrop for this drama and the justification for the military’s actions, but they were not a revolution in the streets. It was a military coup designed to preserve a military-dominated regime. And that was what the crowds were demanding as well."

And that's about where it remains... for the moment. The military, thanks to 'the people', switched out it's aging handler who wanted to pass his office to his son, for it's own handlers - themselves - promising promises of a promising future constitution. I don't think this 'revolution' is over, I don't think the situation has resolved itself, about the only thing that can be said is that Mubarak is gone and somethings else is coming. Personally I'm doubtful it'll be an improvement. When crowds race through the streets calling for "Democracy!" it reminds me of "Liberty! Fraternity! Equality!"... and the French Revolution didn't turn out all that well.

A counterpoint to the media's gushing praise for the 'happy peaceful crowds' can be taken from this reporters experience:
"CBS News reported today that on Friday in Cairo, as news of Mubarak's resignation flooded the crowd, reporter Lara Logan was assaulted: "In the crush of the mob, she was separated from her crew. She was surrounded and suffered a brutal and sustained sexual assault and beating before being saved by a group of women and an estimated 20 Egyptian soldiers."
That sums my feelings up well. The ecstatically happy crowds brutally raped and beat an American reporter for hours, who had to be rescued by a group of women who got help from soldiers, saving her from the democratic revolutionaries.

There ya go. I don't claim to know what's coming next in Egypt, but if past is prologue... it's not likely going to be pretty.


mushroom said...

A little dose of reality. I like it.

JP said...

Egypt is in a crisis era, so we will see what happens. Society will reform itself along the lines of whatever is supported by the society as a whole.

Acutally, most of the Arab world is removed enough (in the generational sense) from any major crisis war that the Sunni Muslim world is attracted to war as a solution.

Iran, on the other hand, is experiencing the Shia version of the Summer of Love.

The only thing I'm really concerned about in Egypt right now is the Suez Canal.